Nike- Not just for lazy people

Earnings Season Issue 9

Earnings Season 10/9/23

In this issue:

Nike: Not just for lazy people.

Accenture : Money, money, money.

Carnival Cruise Line: It’s kind of shocking that a business with so many huge ships is only worth 14 Billion.

In every issue:

● Recent interesting earnings reports

● Government Data Release calendar

-Chris Schaum

This issue made free thanks to:

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The Highlights:

Nike: $148.58B market cap: $.20 beat.

Some of Nike's biggest customer don't lift more then their shopping bags.... and Nike is leaning into it.

Athletes vs lifestyle. Active… vs being a FAN of being active; that is the distinction to consider. Nike built its business making incredible products for athletes, telling emotional stories about them, with consumers buying those products to associate with them. Now, is Nike more a fashion house or an athletic company?

Jon Donahoe addressed the importance of their lifestyle brand in their recent earnings call:

“In fiscal 2019 NIKE's revenues were $39 billion. Today, we're over $50 billion. And what's more, our growth has outpaced the overall industry during this period. Let me offer a few examples of how we've redefined the game over the past few years. The consumer told us they want a lifestyle product and we delivered, growing Air Force 1, AJ1 and Dunk to be the three largest footwear franchises in industry's history.”

Telling stories with the brand is important. Where the stories are told is critical, and that’s a big question for many brands. Nike called the shot on where they wanted to be, and it has paid off.

“TikTok, our priority channel for Gen Z, our engaged audience, meaning those who actively interacted with our content was up 172%, a huge statement of NIKE's ability to connect with authenticity to this important demographic.”

With a business like Nike, where you buy, and where they sell to you have drastically different impacts on their business. Nike covers the gambit allowing you to engage, however you want.

In North America-

“Q1 revenue declined 1%, with wholesale down 8%, in line with our expectations following our restrained sell-in of marketplace supply. NIKE Direct was up 7% as NIKE stores grew 11% and NIKE Digital grew 4%. EBIT grew 4%”

In EMEA-

“Q1 revenue grew 6%, with NIKE Direct also up 6%. NIKE stores grew 17% and NIKE Digital declined 2%. EBIT declined 5%.”

In China-

“Q1 revenue grew 12%. NIKE Direct grew 10%, with NIKE stores up 12% and NIKE Digital up 6%. EBIT declined 3%.”

In Apla- (Asia Pacific, Latin America)

“Q1 revenue grew 3%. NIKE Direct was up 3% with NIKE stores up 10% and NIKE Digital declining 3%. EBIT declined 17%.”

Lastly, we all know that Nike is engrained in pop culture. So much so that it’s not a surprise that Travis Kelsy, Taylor Swift and even Coach Prime in Colorado showed up in the earnings call.

Bob Drbul from Guggenheim asked:

“I just have a question. In North America, I guess, in the current quarter, what's the bigger tailwind to the business right now? Is it the Travis Kelce jerseys or the Colorado football merchandise?”

Nike President- Oregon Ducks jersey.

CFO Mathew Friend- “We love the NFL and we continue to see a lot of momentum with Coach Prime, so both.”

What are our Nike takeaways?

  1. What you think you are (an athletic company) is important, what your customers think you are (a lifestyle fashion-house) may be more important.

  2. Diversify your revenue streams and own all of them.

  3. Figure out how to leverage pop culture.

To that end, if you want the fashion icon hat of the year, pick up your “I’m just here for Taylor” hat at Sandlot Goods.

Support Sandlot Goods. Yeah the owner is my cousins family. I'm 100% down for repping family. PS they have tons of other incredible hats.

Accenture : $207B market cap: $.06 beat.

How many clients do you have who spend more than $100 million a year with you? Accenture has 106 in FY 2023, up from 100. Their revenue mix is pretty crazy. Julie Sweet CEO said-

“Last quarter, we shared that we had sold 100 projects with roughly $100 million in sales over the prior four months. Demand accelerated in Q4, with another approximately $200 million in Gen AI sales to bring our total to over $300 million for the year. We also are embracing the use of Gen AI in our own delivery of services and the way we work across Accenture.”

It sounds like there is a lot of room to grow their AI business too.

“Less than 10% (of our clients) have what we define as mature data and AI capabilities.”

That is not counting the rest of the world that is not their client. Also, as we all know, AI is changing fast; so that 10% is going to have to spend big to stay in the mature category. Julie said there are three things needed to be successful with AI:

“First, ecosystem partnerships. As always, we are starting with deep relationships and leadership in the ecosystem, from the hyperscalers to the model builders, to the startups and academics. It is important to emphasize that we are early in the maturity of Gen AI for enterprise and our depth, experience and insight on these [Indecipherable] is essential to guiding our clients.

Second, talent. We start with a deep technical knowledge and understanding of AI and Gen AI and blend that with our industry and functional expertise to know how to reinvent across the enterprise, including processes and operating models, bringing together the depth and breadth of our expertise. And that is where Accenture is different, building the bridge from as is to the future. And we have already trained approximately 600,000 of our people in the fundamentals of AI. Now, with generative AI, the pace and impact is growing rapidly and we are now taking a further step to equip more than 250,000 people in using new AI tools equitably, sustainably and without bias. And with investments in our AI academy focused on deep AI and Gen AI specialization, we are also progressing towards our goal of doubling our deeply skilled data and AI practitioners from 40,000 to 80,000.

Third, responsible AI is essential. At Accenture, we have an industry-leading Responsible AI compliance program which is embedded in how we use and deliver AI, and we're using the experience and lessons learned by us to help our clients build out their own Responsible AI program which is necessary to address the risks and get the full value from AI.

Finally, we are embracing Gen AI across our services, developing new cutting-edge tools and solutions and bending Gen AI in the way we work. Our approach takes into account where the technology is today, the need to deploy it responsibly, and the recognition that we do work in highly complex environments.”

We're all gonna be best friends....

In terms of what the economic environment will do for Accenture next year, this subtle comment is telling.

“We’re not assuming in our guidance any improvement in the macro or discretionary spend, but we're going to pivot to the areas of growth. So, the macro is going to be kind of this -- it's not going to help us or hurt us this year, is kind of really essentially what we're saying.”

Carnival Company: $14.84B market cap; beat earnings by $.11.

Something tells me these three guys would make a cruise a lot more fun.

Why we care: Software companies love to tout the importance of net revenue retention. IE. Repeat customers—spending more each year. At Carnival, over half of their customers are repeat guests. Overall their business is doing well. Specifically Josh Weinstein their CEO said:

“We’re trying to say it plainly as we can. We just have not seen any sign of slowdown. The only slowdown we see is as we are running out of inventory, it has to slow down. That's it. So we feel quite good.”

The Carnival exec team sees a few tailwinds helping them out as they go through the year:

“First of all, we're starting from that normalized or elongated booking curve, best booked position in our history. The things that we have been doing to try to generate incremental demand and incremental pricing evidentiary says it's working with 7 points higher per diems pretty much consistently throughout this year as we close the occupancy gap. We expect to be back to full year occupancy, as you were pointing out.

The power of our portfolio approach, I don't want to discount. We've been talking about this for many quarters. And what used to be a concern around Europe should now be some applause and congratulations for our European brands who are really coming on to be able to say that our Continental European brands hit positive yields versus '19 this summer is fantastic given where they were a year ago and despite all the concerns that have been raised about our European brands and our approach to being dedicated to particular market that we feel very strongly about.

We expect that will continue, because as you know, in the first half of next year, our European brands did have a lot of work to do to claw back and get to where they were. At the same time, we're doubling down on Carnival Fun Italian Style with the second Costa ship coming over to Carnival. The trade has been rebounding tremendously. Our first timers are really driving our growth, which is another testament to all the commercial work that our team is doing. So there's a lot of positivity on the table here.”

So in summary-

  1. People are spending more, 7% more. Often, we desire to see big wins, but 7% over a long period of time is quite meaningful.

  2. Portfolios of opportunity. Not just relying on the US for business, but Europe and Asia as well.

  3. Driving new customers to the business.

Data Releases.

Why we care: While alternative data is on the road to taking over, nothing moves the market like government and stalwart financial data. Understanding this data can help craft your messaging and deals.

October 9th: Unemployment Trends

October 12th: Continual jobless claims, initial jobless claims

October 18th: Building Permits

Examples of ways to use this info:

● Set up a 5 min call with your clients and prospects. "Susan—can we chat for 4-6 minutes? I read about the how Nvidia is forecasting a 1 trillion dollar 10 year data center turn over and thought it might be of interest to you”

● Cold email: Subject: "Who is going to be impacted more mid market or enterprise?" Body— John, Last week both Sales Force and Workday reported earnings. One thing that was interesting was their leaders talked about how they are focusing on enterprise customers more than any other market. This could lead to some interesting opportunities for businesses like yours. Can we chat for 4-6 minutes to see who this might be valuable to?

● Meeting with your boss: a lot of big tech is focused on multi-lining their customers and heading up market, how can we use this to our advantage?

● Call with a client: "Kenny- did you see the unemployment rate this week? They came in at X. Are you seeing that in your market?"

● Linkedin Posts: 3 ways Ulta is crushing Saas. Put on some new lipstick; it’s time to pucker up for investors.

● Forward them the newsletter!

Thanks for reading!

If you have a tip or feedback, I’d love to hear it.

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